Simple Facts Behind The Endangerment Finding Of Carbon Emissions.

Originally published on Forbes.com on February 15, 2026

Direct effects of global warming are worsening, while extreme weather events are not. Both have to be properly weighted to assess endangerment.

The Supreme Court in 2007 ruled the EPA should regulate carbon emissions (greenhouse gases) under the Clean Air Act. The court found that the gases, which included carbon monoxide and methane, were air pollutants. The EPA in 2009 labeled these gases as endangering the public health and welfare of current and future generations. This became the endangerment finding policy.

Carbon emissions have fallen by over 17% in the U.S. over the last two decades, mainly due to coal-fired power plants switching to gas-fired plants or renewables.

Emissions Are Not Only About Vehicles.

The Obama and Biden administrations put in place climate regulations for carbon emissions from cars, trucks, power plants, and oil/gas operations under the Clean Air Act.

The goal was to protect people from large sources of air pollution, including: power plants, transportation, and oil and gas operations. In the U.S., 25% of carbon emissions came from coal- and gas-fired power plants. In 2024, the EPA finalized rules to address this. 28% of emissions were from transportation, and in 2024, the EPA finalized new standards for clean cars, as well as heavy-duty trucks. 30% of global warming came from methane emissions, such as methane leaks from oil/gas operations, and in 2023, the EPA finalized an order to reduce this.

President Trump’s Action.

Donald Trump rescinded the endangerment policy on February 13, a dramatic move that has shaken up the U.S. because the law has often been applied to protect public health from the negative influences of carbon emissions. He called the endangerment policy “one of the greatest scams in history”, adding that it “had no basis in fact”. Let’s take a look at the facts and the science behind the facts.

Some of the facts are clear, but others are controversial. The science behind the facts has been carefully documented in a book, from which we have adapted here.

Global warming is proven, see Figure 1. Earth’s temperature is rising, and dramatically since 1980 (by 1 ℃). Carbon emissions have a dominant effect during these years, although a contribution by solar forcing, usually neglected, is controversial.

Direct Indicators Of Climate Change.

But climate change is not the same as global warming—it’s a different creature, Figure 2.  There are direct effects on climate that are proven, Table1, because long-term data exist to confirm these trends. And all of these may have serious effects on earth-life, as detailed in the book.

For example, sea levels are rising in most places around the world, and the average in the recent decade is 2–3 mm per year, which amounts to 0.08–0.12 inches per year. This would mean only about eight inches total if projected to the year 2100. But if we allow for an exponential rate of increase, as in Figure 1, rather than linear, the total sea level increase would be about thirty-six inches, or three feet.

In one optimistic projection, by 2100, over four million people in the U.S. will suffer a “disruptive inundation” in five hundred coastal areas. The report said that communities are not well prepared for disasters like this.

Indirect Indicators Of Climate Change.

However, the evidence that the indirect effects of Table 1 are caused by global warming is not there, despite what some of the press and climate specialists argue. Let’s see why this is true.

The main indirect effects of global warming are the so-called four killer weather extremes: droughts, wildfires, floods, and hurricanes. These are often catastrophes, as the US found out in the Fall of 2024 from hurricanes Helene and Milton. These are short- or long-term catastrophes that have major effects on human lives and cause famines, migration, or instability of governments, frequently with loss of life.

For example, long-term data such as hurricanes show numbers of worldwide events that, although fluctuating, reveal no long-term trend Figure 3. The events were reliably recorded and carefully counted. Similar data have been laid out for the other three killer weather extremes: droughts, wildfires, and floods. On a global basis, none of the four killer weather extremes have worsened over the past 40-50 years — even though global temperature has risen by 1.0 ℃ in this period.

Note that the above refers to global numbers or averages that haven’t changed over 50 years. If wildfires in the western U.S. have increased over 50 years, then wildfires somewhere else in the world must have decreased, to keep the total hurricane numbers the same.

Are We Endangered By Global Warming And Carbon Emissions? 

The answer is yes and no.

What could Trump’s rescission mean for public health? This is a big one. A report lists several issues. Burning fossil fuels can cause serious disabilities such as asthma, cancer, heart disease, and early death. Oil and gas are responsible for hundreds of thousands of issues per year in the U.S. and 91,000 premature deaths. Fine particulate matter in the air fell by 24% between 2009 and 2016, but then rose due to lax enforcement of the Clean Air Act, and wildfires in the western U.S.

The direct effects of climate change, Table 1, may all have serious effects on earth-life, as detailed in the book. Sea levels are rising, and the total sea level increase could be about three feet by the year 2100. Millions of people who live in coastal regions around the world may suffer disruptive inundations.

Of course, the year 2100 is far away, and by spending a lot of money on seawalls, such as those built in Galveston, U.S., potential damage may be limited. But the data show that we are endangered by the direct effects of climate change.

On the other hand, the global data are saying that the four killer weather extremes, which have not worsened, are not sensitive to a relatively large rise of 1.0 ℃ that has taken place over the past 50 years. So why should we worry about temperatures rising another 0.5 ℃ (to the Paris critical number of 1.5 ℃) or even another 1 ℃? The data show that we are less endangered by the indirect effects of climate change.

What This Means For Oil And Gas Industry.

The oil and gas industry is not worsening the killer quad of weather extremes, even though the companies now produce around 50% of global carbon emissions. The industry may be culpable for direct indicators of global warming, but not culpable for the indirect killer extremes.

Warning: this means we should be careful before pointing to a local drought or wildfire or hurricane, and say that it’s caused by climate change, because averaged over the world, these extremes have not been worsening. If the southwest U.S. is experiencing a 20-year drought, which it is, and it is caused by climate change, then somewhere else in the world, climate change is removing or has stopped an existing drought. This is possible, but extremely hard to prove from the data, because it’s a second-order effect. The first-order effect is proven—that on average, each of the killer extreme weather events, on a global scale, is not worsening as earth temperature rises.

What can be said, in summary, is that the urgency to reduce carbon emissions, though still significant, is not as dire as often presented by many climate modelers, and frequently by the media and the press. We are still endangered by carbon emissions, yes, but not as endangered as some strident protesters and podcasters proclaim.