Oil Going Down While China’s Energy Mix And Emissions Doing A Backflip

Originally published on Forbes.com on April 28, 2024

China won’t be able to offset U.S. crude oil decline coming from growth of electric vehicles.

China emits the most greenhouse gases (GHG) in the world (33%), followed by the U.S. (15%). An argument of just a few years ago went about what good would it do for the U.S. to reduce its own emissions by a few percent when China’s emissions were still growing, and it was planning to build hundreds of new coal-fired power plants. China should reduce its emissions first, right?

China would have replied that its emissions came from industrial growth: it just wanted to catch up to the U.S. (Figure 1). Then there was criticism from the West for delaying their net zero emissions until 2060, not 2050 as most other countries had committed to in deference to the Paris Accords of 2015.

Figure 1. Annual total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production. Source: Our World in Data/Palmer — **Figure 1**. Annual total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production. Source: Our World in Data/Palmer

It seemed as if China was dragging its feet. But now this is all changing, and it is changing fast. China is starting to do a backflip. China’s designs for the energy transition have been analyzed in 2024 by DNV (Ref 1). For example, DNV state that China’s electrical power will grow from 30% renewables now to 55% by 2035, and 88% by 2050. In 2022 about 40% of global solar and wind capacity, separately, were installed by China. And DNV predicts that this will continue through 2050.

China’s plans and progress for the energy mix have been upended, as Table 1 reveals. Take China’s primary energy supply. From 2030 to 2050, solar and wind will increase from 7% to 41%, a multiple of 7 times. At the same time, fossil fuels will fall by half, from 83% to 44%.

Renewable electricity, which by 2030 will be just above 51% will jump to 78% by 2050. In the same time frame, fossil-burning power plants will fall—again by roughly half from 46% to 24%. In both parts of the table, coal and oil plummet but natural gas stays about the same.

This has implications for the U.S. To offset the U.S. domestic decline, expected due to the closing of fossil-fueled power plants and the growth of electric vehicles, the U.S. cannot look to China.

Table 1. Progress in China’s energy transition, as predicted by DNV. Source DNV (Ref. 1) and Palmer.

China’s energy supply will peak by 2030

DNV predicts that from 2030 to 2050 China’s energy supply will fall by 20%. This is totally unexpected. DNV attributes this to a huge decarbonization scene, improvements in energy efficiency, and a drop in population by 100 million. By 2050, China will be one of the most electrified world regions. The population drop is only 7% of the total population of 1.43 billion in 2024, so this does not account for much of the total 20% energy drop. The surprise is that all this will take place “despite the rising prosperity of Chinese households,” according to DNV.

The goal of energy independence has been a key for China. DNV find that the country will still be importing significant oil and gas by 2050.

Nuclear power is predicted to double by 2050, but its fraction of electrical power remains only about 5% in China.

Emissions

Another surprise, after the legitimate concern by the West a few years ago, is that carbon emissions in China are projected to peak by 2026, according to DNV, with a 30% reduction by 2040.In 2023, China emitted a third of global emissions but this will be reduced by 70% by 2050, to only a fifth of global emissions.

The keys to this reduction of emissions are displacing coal in power plants and other primary energy end-use.

China will be close to meeting its goal of net-zero emissions by 2060, but in DNV’s view, it will need to decarbonize more in manufacturing.

Takeaways

China emits the most greenhouse gases (GHG) in the world (33%), followed by the U.S. (15%). It seemed as if China was dragging its feet. But now this is starting to change, and it will change rapidly.

China’s electrical power will grow from 30% renewables now to 55% by 2035, and 88% by 2050.

In 2022 about 40% of global solar and wind capacity, separately, were installed by China. And DNV predicts that this will continue through 2050.

From 2030 to 2050, solar and wind will increase from 7% to 41%, a multiple of 7 times. At the same time, fossil fuels will fall by half, from 83% to 44%.

Renewable electricity, which by 2030 will be just above 51%, will jump to 78% by 2050. In the same time frame, fossil-burning power plants will fall—again by roughly half from 46% to 24%.

Coal and oil plummet but natural gas stays about the same. To offset the U.S. domestic decline of crude oil, expected due to the growth of electric vehicles, the U.S. cannot look to China.

DNV predicts that from 2030 to 2050 China’s total energy supply will fall by 20%. This is totally unexpected. By 2050, China will be one of the most electrified regions in the world.

In 2023, China emitted a third of global emissions but this will be reduced by 70% by 2050, to only a fifth of global emissions.

References