The Electric Revolution: Dire Consequences For Your Pocketbook
Originally published on Forbes.com on December 4, 2025
Electricity cost is vital in household lights, ovens, and heating/cooling systems. A 50% uptick in electricity cost over the next 10 years is a frightening prospect.
The price surge of new electricity in the next few years, plus general pass-along tariff increases, may seriously curtail Donald Trump’s promise to reduce inflation. Now we have some supporting numbers. A new report by DNV predicts just how much electricity prices will rise by 2035, and it’s a serious number.
The Electric Revolution.
First, let’s define what an energy revolution is. Something that takes over and dominates the economy. The shale revolution began in the early 2000s as shale gas but spread to shale oil by 2009. Long horizontal wells, fracked many times along their length, produced commercial oil and gas. As a result, the US in 2020 became a net exporter of oil and gas for the first time since 1947.
Another example is the LNG revolution. After 2016, U.S. law allowed the country to export gas. As shale gas succeeded, LNG exports rose exponentially. In 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine, and gas supplies from Russia to Europe were cut off. In response, President Biden committed huge quantities of LNG shipments to Europe. It may be said that LNG saved Europe, as the U.S. rose to no 1 exporter of LNG, surpassing Australia and Qatar.
The electric revolution is due to the growth of data centers and AI. AI is transforming industries and leading to fierce competition to acquire supercomputing power and energy resources. AI demands massive energy inputs. The energy infrastructure will necessitate collaboration between technology and industry sectors.
New DNV Biennial Report.
Occasionally, a prediction by a reputable company is propitious, and the numbers from DNV provide significant guidance. DNV is a global company, founded in Norway, that provides services in risk management. In energy, DNV advises and certifies applications in oil and gas, renewables, and energy management.
DNV’s biennial report analyzes the scene in North America, meaning primarily the U.S. plus Canada. The report offers four eye-catching headlines that sharpen reality by adding enlightening estimates of actual numbers:
“Fossil for longer. Policy changes in 2025 prolong the use of fossil fuels in the North American energy system.”
Fossil fuels are now 80% of primary energy in North America (40% natural gas, 34% oil, and 6% coal). But global decarbonization will continue, and by 2050, coal will be at zero, oil will drop by two-thirds, and gas will drop by one-third. Small oil operators in Texas and New Mexico, please take note.
“Renewables: resilience then resurgence. Despite short-term policy friction, solar and wind will expand from 19% of electricity generation today to 55% by 2040.”
DNV predicts demand for electricity will grow by 50% by 2040, with data centers and AI soaking up a third of the increase. Solar and onshore wind remain the cheapest sources: Solar cost is 62% and onshore wind is 75% of gas-fired turbines in 2025, based on LCOE calculations. They don’t leave out the enormous acceleration of grid battery storage (BESS) either. By 2040, BESS will grow by 25 times the incipient 0.07 TWh in 2024, boosting the dispatchability of solar and wind.
“Decarbonization delayed. Continued use of fossil fuels delays decarbonization by five to eight years.”
A benchmark for electricity is when it reaches 99% decarbonization. In 2024, DNV forecasted 2050 for this date. But the new report has it eight years later, in 2058. Another benchmark is the 50:50 split between fossil primary energy and non-fossil. For North America, this has been delayed by five years, from 2042 to 2047, due to the 2025 government policy changes. A more jolting assessment is that LNG terminals now run a bit more risk of being stranded assets after 2040, due to more rapid decarbonization in Europe, China, and OECD Pacific. This is a sobering thought in the U.S,. where the Trump administration in 2025 has waived previous regulation delays for opening LNG terminals.
“(Un)affordable energy. Retail electricity prices are likely to increase by 22% before inflation in the next ten years.”
Several factors have been identified by DNV, but new-build data centers are primary. Administration policies are mentioned, including those handicapping renewables, but also tariffs that force up the cost of solar, batteries, and grid expansion.
Surging prices For Electricity.
Consumers are always sensitive to their electric costs. DNV points out that electricity prices have jumped 17% in the last five years. Worse, they forecast residential electricity prices will rise, before inflation, by another 22% up to 2035. “The average household is thus likely to see a 50% higher USD/kWh rate in nominal terms between 2024 and 2035”. Although other energy costs, like gasoline and natural gas, are expected to rise more slowly, electricity cost is a lightning rod because it’s front and center in household lights, ovens, and heating/cooling systems. A 50% uptick in electricity cost over the next 10 years is a frightening prospect.