Coronavirus Prediction and Risk for New Mexico.
Did you see Bill Gates on CNN last week? He was impressive. In clear language, he stuck to the facts and figures — and he made sense.
He has had lots of money to spend, and some of it he has spent on future pandemics. This was after the SARS pandemic of 2003. He wrote an article that defined what governments should do when the next pandemic strikes.
Did they act on this? Nope. In fact, President Trump closed down the Office of Infectious Diseases in the White House.
It seems that if the USA had acted like Gates recommended, our country might have been in a much better situation. Apparently South Korea, Hong-Kong, and Singapore did exactly that and their virus is contained.
PREDICTED OUTCOMES FOR NEW MEXICO
Bill Gates also funded a group at the University of Washington to develop a model to predict the outcome of a pandemic. The figure here shows the results of this model applied to New Mexico.
The total deaths by month are shown by the yellow band, which expresses the uncertainty of the prediction. The average deaths by month is shown by the dashed red line.
For example, less than 5 deaths by April 1, 300 deaths by May 1, 500 deaths by June 1. After that the curve has flattened and there are only a few more deaths.
The yellow band shows it could be worse than this, but it could also be better than this.
NUMBER OF INFECTIONS.
Typically 2-3% of infections lead to death. So the number of infections on April 1 would be less than 200, by May 1 about 12,000, by June 1 about 20,000 infections.
BUT, if there are no new deaths after June 1, there would be no new infections after May 15 because the infection lasts about two weeks. This suggests we have to be continue the habits of social-distancing and washing hands and avoid touching our face until May 15. That’s six weeks from now.
So there’s hope for New Mexico. But there’s enough uncertainty in the yellow band of the figure that we should continue to be diligent about our new habits, because the numbers may change.
Here is a list of habits recommended by Dr David Price, a critical pulmonary-care specialist at Weill Cornell Hospital in New York City. Usually he deals with all kinds of respiratory ailments, but now he’s dealing only with COVID-19 patients. I got this information from a separate website.
Dr Price does a conference call describing his experience. It’s a long video (57 minutes), and overall reassuring.
To play the video, click HERE.
Bottom line: COVID-19 is becoming well understood. If you practice good hand cleanliness procedures and distancing, you have nothing to worry about.
1. Hand to face is the critical path. Spray, rarely.
2. Get into the habit of knowing where your hands are and be sure they are clean. (sanitizer)
3. Wear a mask, not to protect you, but simply to avoid hand to face contact.
4. You don’t need an N-95 mask. Anything will do. Give N-97 to your local hospital.
5. Carry sanitizer with you when you go out.
6. Be friendly and social, just stay 6′ away.
7. Shrink your social circle. You don’t want to be in large groups.
8. Go to the hospital only if you are short of breath. Headache, fever, muscle ache, cough – stay home.
9. Course of the disease is 7 -14 days. Immunity then follows.
If you follow the simple rules, you will not get COVID-19.
• Clean your hands frequently, after opening doors, etc. Cary a bottle of Purell with you.
• Avoid touching your face, unless your hands are clean. Wear gloves to remind you.
• Keep 6 feet away from others. Avoid groups.
• Understand the modeling predictions as seen in the figure. They lessen the overall uncertainty and this can lower our anxiety.
Related topics: Pandemic Update – New Mexico, Kansas, and Australia
BLOG TOPICS: I write in-depth blogs about a curious mix of topics: Inspiration and Hope, and Health and Hiking, and Science and Energy. Something for everyone!
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The Gray Nomad ….. Read and pray and hope and keep hands away from face.
Have mercy on me, my God, have mercy on me,
for in you I take refuge.
I will take refuge in the shadow of your wings
until the disaster has passed.
[Book of Psalms, chapter 57]
Thank you again for sharing good and useful information. Stay safe, stay well.
I have read that the main way the virus is spread is person to person via droplets containing the virus. If I read you right, you are saying that hand to face is the primary way. I wonder which is true. In any case both social distancing and hand washing are critical. Thanks, Ian, for the encouraging information.
Ian…thank you for the research you did for this blog
and your comments on Bill Gates’ efforts on pandemics.
Even though I had read about most of the steps you shared
that we all
need to take to prevent catching the coronsvirus, it was
Good to be reminded again.
Great stuff, Ian. Thanks for sharing!
Thanks Ian for another timely and informative blog post. I appreciate the information and your efforts to bring it to us.
Ian, I am thankful New Mexico has been wise with their dealings of the Covid 19 virus. I wish I could say the same for Oklahoma. Our numbers are not good and our governor seems more led by short-sighted economic incentive than the longview for both health and economy of our state.
Blessings and good health to you,